Myth #1: Stafford isn't very good because he has never won any big games. Actually I am going to just lump a few myths together here before I debunk them. Myth #2: Stafford is not that good because he has a terrible record against winning teams. Myth #3: Stafford is not that great because he has never won a playoff game or Superbowl. Truth: The common theme to all three of these myths is exactly what is flawed with these myths. They deal with wins and losses. Which are "Team" stats. American Football is not Basketball. One player cannot step up and dominate the other team and carry a bad team on his back to win games against good teams. One player cannot "will" a bad team to victory. No matter how great a quarterback is, he still needs receivers who get open to throw to. He still needs those receivers to catch the ball. No matter how great a receiver is, he still needs an offensive line to protect the QB long enough for him to run his route and get open. He still needs a QB who can find him when he is open and get the ball to him. The best Running Back in the game still needs an offensive line to open holes for him to run through. All of these guys still need an offensive coordinator who calls good plays and sets them up with a good scheme to put them in a position to succeed. One man does not win games. "Teams" win games. Anyone who tries to use wins and losses of any kind as a stat to claim whether a player is good or bad, is someone who simply does not understand the most basic concept of football. That it is the ultimate team sport. Myth #4: Stafford doesn't make players around him better. Truth: In the four seasons from 2007 to 2010, the great Calvin Johnson averaged 68 catches, 1,048 yards and 8.3 TDs per season. After Stafford started playing full seasons in 2011 through 2015, Calvin averaged 92 catches, 1,486 yards, and 10 TDs per season. In 4 seasons in Seattle, Golden Tate averaged 41 catches, 549 yards, and 3.8 TDs. In 4 seasons with Stafford, he has averaged, 93 catches, 1,056 yards, and 4.8 TDs. It is important to note that in Seattle, they had a good running game to help keep the opposing defenses honest. The Lions have not, and yet Tate's numbers almost double under Stafford. Myth #5: Stafford gets all of his yards in garbage time in the 4th quarter when opponents are in the prevent defense. Truth: Teams usually do not play prevent defense in the second quarter. Not with a whole half a game ahead of them. Yet Stafford has more yards in the second quarter in his career than he has in the 4th quarter. Even if you consider the 2nd quarter as a prevent defense quarter, the disparity between quarters is minimal. Stafford's total yards (at the time of writing this) is 35,596 yards. He has 17,864 in the 1st half and 17,732 in the 2nd half of games. These are his numbers by quarter... 1st Qtr = 7,675 yds (21.56%) 2nd Qtr = 10,189 yds (28.62%) 3rd Qtr = 8,016 yds (22.52%) 4th Qtr = 9,716 yds (27.30%) Overtime= 343 yds (00.96%) The biggest difference here is from the 1st to 2nd quarter, 2,514 yards, spread out over his entire career (129 games). That comes out to 19.49 yards per game difference. From the 3rd quarter to the 4th quarter? 1,700 yards difference. Spread out over 129 games? 13.18 yards a game. Hardly lopsided towards garbage time stats. Myth #6: Stafford only gets so many yards because he throws so many passes. Truth: True, but that should be considered a positive to his credit rather than a negative. Do you think that Stafford is the first QB to ever play on a bad team that couldn't run the ball? There have been many QBs whose teams were even worse at running the ball than the Lions. So why aren't those QBs throwing as many passes and getting as many yards? I will tell you why. They aren't good enough! When an offense cannot run the ball, it is essentially the same as telling the opponents that you can't run, they know it, you know it, everyone knows it. We will be passing. Try and stop us. With most of those other quarterbacks, the defenses stop them. With Stafford, they don't! Everyone knows the Lions have never been able to run during Stafford's career. The Lions have essentially said, our only hope of moving the ball is with Stafford's arm, so that is what we will do. And he does it. Throwing a lot of passes in his career is not a negative. It is saying that he has been good enough to put the entire offensive production on his shoulders and for a large part he has produced. If anyone could do it, why haven't they? Why is it only the elite quarterbacks have matched his numbers? In some cases even the elite have not. The reason why only the elite QBs have matched him, is because the other QBs simply were not good enough. Myth: Stafford is good but not elite. Truth: Stafford is more than good. He is elite and his production backs that up. When a QB does something that only the elite have accomplished, you need to consider the possibility that QB may be elite. IF he accomplishes multiple fetes that only the elite have matched, and does some that even the elite have not matched? Whether you like him or not, he is elite. It is simple logic. In 2011, Stafford threw for 5,038 yards. Only 4 other QBs in history have thrown for 5,000+ yards in a season. Brees (5 times), Manning (1), Brady (1) and Marino (1). Stafford came 33 yards away from doing it twice. Notice one thing here. Only elite QBs have reached 5,000 yards. Drew Brees holds the NFL record for the most consecutive 4,000+ yard seasons with 12. That is an amazing stat. Stafford is tied for second currently with Matt Ryan at 7 consecutive seasons. You could argue that Ryan is not elite, but everyone agreed he was the year he won the Superbowl. Manning, Brady, Rodgers, Marino and every other elite QB you want to mention? They have not matched that. Stafford has the most come from behind wins in the 4th quarter in one season with 8. No other QB has matched that. First player in NFL history to complete at least 60% of his passes in every game of a season. Tied Brees with the most consecutive 350+ yards games with 4. Stafford is the fastest player in NFL history to reach 30,000 passing yards. He did it in 109 games. These are all stats that only the elite QBs have matched, or stats that not even the elite have matched. That fact alone places him in the company of the elite, unless you can show me where another QB who is not elite has matched these accomplishments. Matching Greatness in the worst of Circumstances Now let me throw one other piece of logic at you. If two quarterbacks throw for 4,000 yards and 30 TDs, who is the better QB? They are the same right? What if one of them did it on a team with no run game and a terrible defense and a line that allowed him to be sacked 40 times while the other one had a good run game, a good defense and was only sacked 20 times? Then you have to consider that the QB who was on the bad team but still managed to put up the big numbers must be the better QB. In the seven seasons Stafford has been a healthy starting QB, I looked at the stats of every QB. I found their stats, I looked up how many rushing yards his team had each season, and how many yards his defense gave up per game in each season. I looked for these numbers.... 1) Sacked 35+ times. This shows a lack of protection. 2) His team's offense rushed for less than 1600 yards for the season. (No run support to keep opposing defenses honest.) 3) His team's defense allowed more than 350 yards per game. (Shows a defense that did not keep leads or give the ball back to the QB in good field position.) In those 7 seasons, with 32 teams in the NFL, that is 224 seasons by QBs. Only 17 of them had to face all three of these in the same season. There were only three QBs who had to face this more than once. Rivers and Tannehill had to twice each. Stafford faced it 4 times. Four out of his seven seasons playing have been in the worst situations a QB should have to be placed in. OF those 17 seasons, Stafford's QB rating in those seasons comes in at 2nd, 3rd, 4th, and 7th. By the way, in three of those four seasons, Stafford's run support didn't even reach 1400 yards.
Another point I need to make is that Stafford has also not been helped out by the offensive schemes he has been stuck in. Linehan's scheme lived and died by the big play. Not only did they have a bad run game, but they didn't even have a good short passing game. Lombardi tried to go for the down field pass even more but he had the offense so confused the players were missing assignments. Cooter has been nearly the opposite. Cooter has taken the deep ball out of the plan until they are down in the score. Previous to 2018, Cooter has run the ball from big sets and passed from spread formations. Tipping off on over 85% of the plays whether they are running or passing. Stafford has been in about as bad of a situation as any QB who ever played the game. Everything that anyone says, why he is not elite, is based on team statistics and made up theories. They are myths at best. When you look at what Stafford has accomplished and look at what circumstances he has accomplished those things under, there simply is no arguing that he is elite but has simply been stuck on a bad team. At least you can't argue it using intelligence. If Stafford has put up the numbers he has in these circumstances, what would he do if they actually had a decent run game and defense for a season with good play calling?
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This off-season has been a roller coaster ride for this Lions fan.
The Detroit Lions first preseason game of 2018 is out of the way and it was good and bad.
The BAD: The Lions defense was simply unimpressive at best and lousy at worst. There was very little pressure put on the opposing QB, too many cases of linebackers covering fast receivers and they couldn't seem to stop the run. On one of the first plays from scrimmage, Marshawn Lynch exploded practically untouched to the left sideline for more than 60 yards to pay dirt and the Lions simply got lucky to have it called back on a holding penalty that in the replay I felt was very minor. There were another three plays where the Lions defense lost all containment on the right side and allowed a RB to run free around it. The good news in this is that the containment was usually given up by players that are likely not to make the team. All in all however, the defense did not look very impressive and it left me hoping beyond hope that Patricia just isn't showing much yet as he wants to see players covering one on one and such to see how they do. The Quarterbacks were a bit on the scary side. This is just a personal feeling but I really don't like watching Cassel in there. Every time he throws the ball it looks like he is a shortstop throwing to first base. There is a strange arm snap motion that feels like he is aiming the ball. Rudock didnt look good to begin with but later he almost seemed lost and was pulled when the two minute hurry up offense was put into place. And it still failed miserably. The Not Bad but Not Good: Everyone was wondering what the offensive line would look like and it didn't come out impressing. It gave up early sacks and did not open much running room early. Yes it looked better later in the game but in all honesty those were backups and players who wont even be that, so it really doesn't matter how they looked. But I don't see this as a bad thing because it was the first action and they still need to build some cohesiveness in the starting group. There is always some expectation for miscues early in the preseason. Kenny Golloday had a couple of dropped passes though in being fair, the first drop was due to being mugged as the ball reached him. Not saying it was pass interference, just saying it was very well timed and not many would have caught it. The very next play however the ball was a little behind him but very catchable and he let it bounce right off his hands. But we all have seen what he can do and in the first action of the season and with a QB he probably isn't really comfortable with, its nothing to worry about. The GOOD: Ameer Abdullah looked fairly decent as he showed some patience and vision. He looked like the player I believed he would be if he ever got a half way decent line with a better scheme. On the goal line play he took the ball to the right and when there was nothing there, he cut back to the left and found an opening to break through for the score. The GREAT: I finally got to see some Kerryon Johnson in action and they gave him plenty of it. His 7 carries went for 34 yards and an average of 4.9 yards per carry. He showed power to break tackles and speed around the edge as well as a burst through the line. He also had 4 receptions for another 34 yards (8.3 avg). SCHEME PROBLEMS: I am keeping an eye on this as I am a huge believer that the Lions had the talent last year to have the #1 offense in the NFL but the scheme was extremely anti-run. I kept track of how many receivers were lined up wide of the line on each play and whether it was a run or a pass play. Last year the run plays had two or fewer receivers on over 80% of the plays and the pass plays had 3 or more on over 80% of the plays. Unfortunately my computer crashed late in the game and I lost all the data for the game. Gonna have to keep track the old fashioned way until I can afford better stuff in life. The good news is I do remember that several of the Lions best runs came with 3 receivers lined up wide, so they are making it more difficult for the defense to guess it is a run play. They were still lopsided on pass plays but they are fixing the run scheme possibly. I have been reading that the Lions have been practicing with 2 RB packages a lot but I didn't see any used (that I noticed) so this is something I think Patricia is holding back for future use. OVERALL: As I mentioned there were good and bad things to take from this game but the most important thing to remember is that it was just the first preseason game and means absolutely nothing. It only helps the coaches pick out things they need to focus more on coming up to clean up the team for the regular season. The loss means nothing at all and will only be used as a bad thing by those who simply don't understand what is going on in preseason games. Coaches do not game plan, they do not show much of what they have in store, they often call plays for nothing more than to see how the player reacts rather than to succeed. It is a learning stage and nothing more. The only point we will see more than that is the first half of the 3rd preseason game when the starters have their dress rehearsal. That's right, the Lions could be the biggest surprise in the 2018 NFL season, and it's not far fetched to believe it either.
First lets look at last season. The Lions gave most of their opponents a two score head start before they started moving the ball. Yet they almost made the playoffs and won 9 games. That is nine wins with the worst run game in the NFL. Nine games with a bottom five defense. Nine games with starting over half of them down two scores going towards halftime. So let me ask you one question. How are the Lions worse than they were in 2017? They are basically the same or better in every position except maybe TE and that can be debated. QB - Stafford is one of the better QBs in the NFL and getting better. He is also one of the more durable and possibly the toughest in the game. The Lions will be about the same at QB. RB - They have added the best short yardage RB (Blount) in the NFL to the roster. They drafted another RB (Kerryon) who is very talented. If they are not the same, they are easily better at RB. WR - They still have Tate and Jones and Golladay, but Golladay now has a year under him and will be ready for more action. They have two other rookies who are surprising many who watch them practice. TO the point that it might be surprising if TJ Jones even makes the team. Overall they are probably a bit better at WR. TE - They have lost Ebron. As much as fans hated Ebron, that can be hard to make up for. However with Roberts the word is he is going to surprise people with how far he has come. In camp he has been one of the most consistent so far. Since he will be a better blocker than Ebron ever dreamed of being, this could in fact be an improvement for the Lions at TE. OL - Glasgow is healthy now and with Swanson gone, he will probably play at Center where he was one of the better Centers in the game last year when he played that position. With Decker fully healthy from the start and adding Ragnow at LG, this line will be better than last year. Defense in general is the biggest question mark. Last year they played the entire season mostly from the 4-3 scheme and without a DT who can rush the passer up the middle the 4-3 essentially becomes a prevent defense. This year they are expected to play more 3-4 and possibly some 3-3-5 schemes. This change in scheme, considering their personnel can do nothing but good for the defense. They may not be much better on defense, but they certainly will not be as bad as last year. Talent-wise, the Detroit Lions will be better than last year overall. They have improved some positions and not gotten worse in any one position. So right from the start there is no reason to believe they will be worse than last season. Some might say the schedule is tougher but I would argue that. They do have a few good teams they play but they also play several teams that will not be so good. I do not expect the Seahawks to be near as good as they have been in the past. So if they won 9 games last year, I would expect them to win 9 again this year at least. Now here is where the Lions could excel. Offensive scheme. Yes they have the same offensive coordinator and believe me I was not very happy when they decided to keep Cooter. His scheme had three major flaws in it last year that basically made his offense anti-run. 1) They only used a lead blocker about half a dozen times all season. Some teams don't use them, I understand that, but those are teams that have established they can run the ball. If you cannot run the ball at all, and your RBs are scat backs with zero power, you need to help them out with a lead blocker. 2) Until they were two scores down, the Lions rarely threw a pass down field. Every play called was a screen, a run or a very short route. This draws the safeties in, makes their first step toward the line and playing on the balls of their feet instead of playing off their heels. This makes the safety quicker to fill any run lanes the line might create. So without a lead blocker, a RB's with no power were trying to fight through the safeties and linebackers meeting them at the line. 3) If the first two problems were not making life for the running backs hell already, Cooter's biggest scheme flaw was his formations. Unlike most fans who say they can guess what the plays were, I was under no illusions that they ran on first down every play. They actually ran on around 58% of the first downs. I didn't need to guess anything to know what was coming. I counted receivers who were lined up wide of the line. Three or more receivers would mean it was a pass play on more than 80% of the pass plays. On over 80% of the run plays there were fewer than 3 receivers lined up away from the linemen. In a Minnesota game, that accuracy rate reached 91%. Again, there was no guessing involved. No luck involved. I counted the receivers and nothing more. It was that easy. So basically they were telling the defense when they were running or passing before the ball was snapped. Now on passing plays, you can still have some success even if they know it is a pass. You only need one of the 3 to 5 targets to lose their coverage. But when a defense knows it is a run and you use scat backs and no lead blockers? It makes a run game nearly impossible to succeed. Here's the deal. In the last round of the draft, the Lions picked a fullback. Unfortunately he has gotten injured and will miss his rookie season, but the fact remains, that draft pick is a very good sign that the Lions plan on using a lead blocker more this year. That is already a great sign that Patricia and crew have recognized these flaws and are addressing them. If the Lions fix these problems and actually have a decent run game this year, that will make their already great passing game even more dangerous. With a decent run game, the Lions offense could be the best in the NFL. A team that won 9 games with a very flawed offense and a defense that was essentially playing prevent all year will now be a team that has a defense playing a scheme that fits their personnel and possibly the most dominant offense in the NFL. If you don't think that can make the playoffs and even win in the playoffs, you are out of your mind. This years Lions have a chance to be the surprise team of the 2018 NFL season but that lies almost solely on the coaches addressing the scheme problems. And that is not that far of a reach. If the scheme problems are not addressed, they will probably end up about the same as last season with 9 wins and missing the playoffs. At best they would win 10 games, make the playoffs and lose in the first round again. However, if they do indeed fix these scheme problems, we could finally be in for one great season. |
AuthorK.J.Ester is an Author, a Lions fan and above all, man of God. Archives
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